Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.655304 0.762564 0.881419 1.022837 1.186480 1.369860 1.590944
2025-02-09 0.488631 0.634382 0.813720 1.050376 1.354298 1.731396 2.234886
2025-02-16 0.394225 0.553245 0.763999 1.063254 1.476878 2.028177 2.818875
2025-02-23 0.327544 0.489837 0.718357 1.062780 1.568093 2.281784 3.366359
2025-03-02 0.276331 0.436741 0.674803 1.052649 1.636358 2.503061 3.887518
2025-03-09 0.239324 0.397468 0.643477 1.052408 1.713906 2.740846 4.455664
2025-03-16 0.202196 0.351526 0.594127 1.014934 1.725072 2.873523 4.870833
2025-03-23 0.191216 0.346521 0.608943 1.082010 1.911462 3.303248 5.814096
2025-03-30 0.165782 0.312648 0.570348 1.052382 1.929064 3.452859 6.299752
2025-04-06 0.143646 0.281347 0.531761 1.016843 1.930146 3.571317 6.740440
2025-04-13 0.125407 0.254637 0.497778 0.984698 1.932092 3.689095 7.189699
2025-04-20 0.115053 0.241673 0.487650 0.995888 2.015733 3.963872 7.960687
2025-04-27 0.111002 0.241141 0.502096 1.058226 2.208729 4.471589 9.250273
2025-05-04 0.103874 0.233320 0.501173 1.089774 2.344761 4.885419 10.406179
2025-05-11 0.095841 0.222365 0.492270 1.103251 2.444547 5.236732 11.473659
2025-05-18 0.087569 0.209652 0.477881 1.102764 2.513830 5.531418 12.453510
2025-05-25 0.079477 0.196187 0.460076 1.092259 2.559462 5.780125 13.361020
2025-06-01 0.073031 0.185681 0.447545 1.092010 2.627729 6.084618 14.425899
2025-06-08 0.064770 0.169588 0.420046 1.053150 2.601825 6.175805 15.014054
2025-06-15 0.063962 0.172029 0.436823 1.122705 2.841009 6.897428 17.155463
2025-06-22 0.057472 0.158937 0.414110 1.091983 2.832655 7.039309 17.925620
2025-06-29 0.051374 0.146015 0.390188 1.055130 2.804429 7.130111 18.580295
2025-07-06 0.046106 0.134597 0.368685 1.021796 2.781044 7.229817 19.268045